Karnataka by-polls predictions : BJP-7, Congress- 5, JDS-2

In between operation lotus, defection, nomination and re election, none of the parties look good! The ball is in voters court!

karnataka bypolls

After the supreme court judgement about the disqualified MLAs, the nomination process for the by-polls in Karnataka has started and so do the speculations about the winners and losers.

Even though Former CM Siddaramaiah said ‘We will win 12, don’t be surprised if we win all 15’, it is quite apparent that all three parties are in a miserable condition.

Gaurilankeshnews spoke to some of the ‘insiders’ in all the three parties and here is what we found out. 

First the disqualified MLAs-

The disqualified MLAs who had won in the previous election and are now contesting on BJP ticket are not confident of winning. To get a simple majority in the assembly BJP needs 8 more seats and they are not confident about it.


BJP is in power, has a strong high command, they have scared the bigwigs of the opposition but in spite of all this, they are facing dissidence from inside the party. In Hosakote, son of the current BJP MP Bachchegowda has announced that he will contest the election as an independent; he had lost the election in 2018 as a BJP candidate.

The defeated BJP candidate from Athani constituency, Lakshman Savadi, is now deputy CM. He is made incharge of that constituency in the by-polls.

He has to see that defected Congress MLA Mahesh Kumatalli wins from here. But that will be an end to his career. Though from the outset, it looks like BJP will control the dissidence, we have to wait until the results to see how voters vote. Hence, BJP is not confident of winning more than 7 seats.


Now, Congress also doesn’t look like a good situation. So far, they have not been able to find a candidate to contest in Yeshwantpur. They couldn’t succeed in getting Javarai Gowda from JDS into their fold. So now, they have to field a candidate who will make sure that JDS candidate Javarai Gowda wins if they want to defeat the defected S.T.Somashekhar from there.

In Hosakote, if they want to defeat the disqualified BJP candidate MTB Nagaraj, then the independent candidate Sharat Bachcchegowda has to win. To ensure that they are fielding wife of Bairati Suresh.

In Chikkaballapur, the declared candidate Anjanappa is not willing to contest. They are trying to persuade him. It only shows that they are paving the way for Sudhakar to win. Even in Gokak, they have not been able to finalise the candidate. Inspite of the fact that congress has suffered because of defection, now they want to field a person from BJP to contest on Congress ticket. Nobody is sure that he will not go back to BJP when such a situation arises. Raju Kage who was defeated by Srimanth Patil of Congress in 2018 has now come to congress fold.

JDS is in the worse position among the three. Both Devegowda and H.D.Kumaraswamy have made it clear that they will support the BJP government. The irony is not lost anyone because it was BJP that was responsible for the ousting of the HD Kumaraswamy government.

In Mahalkshmi layout, where JDS MLA Gopalaiah has defected to BJP, the second choice for the constitutency R V Harish who has worked for the party since long has resigned two days ago. Because, he feels that the father son duo might get some migratory bird to the constituency and give him a ticket.

In Hunasuru, H Vishwanath had won on JDS ticket. Infact the state leadership of JDS had ensured it. But this time there are letting congress to win there.

Considering all this, it appears that out of 15, BJP might win 7, congress 5 and JDS 2. The remaining seat may be held by an independent candidate.

The article was first published in our kannada website. To read it in Kannada- Click here


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July 2024


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